Publications
Our teams aspire to make discoveries that impact everyone, and core to our approach is sharing our research and tools to fuel progress in the field.
Our teams aspire to make discoveries that impact everyone, and core to our approach is sharing our research and tools to fuel progress in the field.
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1 - 15 of 11420 publications
A probabilistic framework for learning non‐intrusive corrections to long‐time climate simulations from short‐time training data
Benedikt Barthel
Rob Carver
Fei Sha
Themistoklis Sapsis
Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems (2026)
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Despite advances in high performance computing, accurate numerical simulations of global atmospheric dynamics remain a challenge. The resolution required to fully resolve the vast range scales as well as the strong coupling with—often not fully-understood—physics renders such simulations computationally infeasible over time horizons relevant for long-term climate risk assessment. While data-driven parameterizations have shown some promise of alleviating these obstacles, the scarcity of high-quality training data and their lack of long-term stability typically hinders their ability to capture the risk of rare extreme events. In this work we present a general strategy for training variational (probabilistic) neural network models to non-intrusively correct under-resolved long-time simulations of turbulent climate systems. The approach is based on the paradigm introduced by Barthel Sorensen et al. (2024, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023ms004122) which involves training a post-processing correction operator on under-resolved simulations nudged toward a high-fidelity reference. Our variational framework enables us to learn the dynamics of the underlying system from very little training data and thus drastically improve the extrapolation capabilities of the previous deterministic state-of-the art—even when the statistics of that training data are far from converged. We investigate and compare three recently introduced variational network architectures and illustrate the benefits of our approach on an anisotropic quasi-geostrophic flow. For this prototype model our approach is able to not only accurately capture global statistics, but also the anistropic regional variation and the statistics of multiple extreme event metrics—demonstrating significant improvement over previously introduced deterministic architectures.
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In a prior column, we wrote about how measuring productivity can be viewed as a form of modeling and that all models are wrong, but some are useful. That discussion centered on the idea of ensuring that a productivity model was inclusive of multiple metrics and that those metrics covered the various facets of productivity and covered each facet reasonably well. In that article, we set aside the question of what makes a good individual productivity metric that can be combined with others into a (hopefully) useful model of productivity. In this article, we’ll share some things we consider when building an individual metric, including an example of a novel metric we built in the aftermath of the COVID pandemic.
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We address the problem of training conversion prediction models in advertising domains under privacy constraints, where direct links between ad clicks and conversions are unavailable. Motivated by privacy-preserving browser APIs and the deprecation of third-party cookies, we study a setting where the learner observes a sequence of clicks and a sequence of conversions, but can only link a conversion to a set of candidate clicks (an attribution set) rather than a unique source. We formalize this as learning from attribution sets generated by an oblivious adversary equipped with a prior distribution over the candidates. Despite the lack of explicit labels, we construct an unbiased estimator of the population loss from these coarse signals via a novel approach. Leveraging this estimator, we show that Empirical Risk Minimization achieves generalization guarantees that scale with the informativeness of the prior and is also robust against estimation errors in the prior, despite complex dependencies among attribution sets.
Simple empirical evaluations on standard datasets suggest our unbiased approach significantly outperforms common industry heuristics, particularly in regimes where attribution sets are large or overlapping.
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ConvApparel: A Benchmark Dataset and Validation Framework for User Simulators in Conversational Recommenders
Ofer Meshi
Guy Tennenholtz
Jihwan Jeong
The 19th Conference of the European Chapter of the Association for Computational Linguistics (EACL-26), Rabat, Morocco (2026)
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LLM-based user simulators are a scalable solution for improving conversational AI, but a critical realism gap undermines their effectiveness. To close this gap, we introduce a framework for building and validating high-fidelity simulators. We present a novel dataset of human-AI shopping conversations designed to capture a wide spectrum of user experiences. To measure fidelity, we propose a hybrid evaluation protocol that combines statistical alignment with a learned, discriminator-based Human-Likeness Score. Our most sophisticated simulator, trained via reinforcement learning with iterative critique, achieves a significant leap in realism. Critically, we demonstrate through counterfactual validation that our simulator—trained exclusively on optimal interactions—realistically adapts its behavior to suboptimal system responses, mirroring real user reactions and marking a key advance in creating reliable simulators for robust AI development.
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FabScore: Fine-Grained Evaluation of Fabrications in Automated AI Research
James Xu Zhao
See-Kiong Ng
Dongfu Jiang
Bryan Hooi
Qianyun Guo
Hui Chen
Pang Wei Koh
Muhao Chen
Yiwei Wang
2026
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In automated AI research, scientific rigor is not merely a matter of producing coherent papers and executable code; rather, it fundamentally requires that the experimental results claimed in a paper are faithfully supported by the accompanying implementation and verifiable through actual execution logs. When this alignment breaks down, AI-generated research may contain fabrications: discrepancies between the methods described in the paper and what the code actually implements, or between the reported results and those obtained by running the code. This motivates a systematic evaluation of fabrications that systematically examines the consistency between a paper's claimed experimental outcomes and its accompanying code files. In automated AI research, scientific rigor is not merely a matter of producing coherent papers and executable code; rather, it fundamentally requires that the experimental results claimed in a paper are faithfully supported by the accompanying implementation and verifiable through actual execution logs. When this alignment breaks down, AI-generated research may contain fabrications: discrepancies between the methods described in the paper and what the code actually implements, or between the reported results and those obtained by running the code. This motivates a systematic evaluation of fabrications that systematically examines the consistency between a paper's claimed experimental outcomes and its accompanying code files. This is a placeholder. This is a placeholder. This is a placeholder.
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From Correctness to Collaboration: A Human-Centered Taxonomy of AI Agent Behavior in Software Engineering
Extended Abstracts of the 2026 CHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems (CHI EA ’26), ACM, New York, NY, USA (2026)
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The ongoing transition of Large Language Models in software engineering from code generators into autonomous agents requires a shift in how we define and measure success. While models are becoming more capable, the industry lacks a clear understanding of the behavioral norms that make an agent effective in collaborative software development in the enterprise. This work addresses this gap by presenting a taxonomy of desirable agent behaviors, synthesized from 91 sets of user-defined rules for coding agents. We identify four core expectations: Adhere to Standards and Processes, Ensure Code Quality and Reliability, Solve Problems Effectively, and Collaborate with the User. These findings offer a concrete vocabulary for agent behavior, enabling researchers to move beyond correctness-only benchmarks and design evaluations that reflect the realities of professional software development in large enterprises.
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The field of Human-Computer Interaction is approaching a critical inflection point, moving beyond the era of static, deterministic systems into a new age of self-evolving systems. We introduce the concept of Adaptive generative interfaces that move beyond static artifacts to autonomously expand their own feature sets at runtime. Rather than relying on fixed layouts, these systems utilize generative methods to morph and grow in real-time based on a user’s immediate intent. The system operates through three core mechanisms: Directed synthesis (generating new features from direct commands), Inferred synthesis (generating new features for unmet needs via inferred commands), and Real-time adaptation (dynamically restructuring the interface's visual and functional properties at runtime). To empirically validate this paradigm, we executed a within-subject (repeated measures) comparative study (N=72) utilizing 'Penny,' a digital banking prototype. The experimental design employed a counterbalanced Latin Square approach to mitigate order effects, such as learning bias and fatigue, while comparing Deterministic interfaces baseline against an Adaptive generative interfaces. Participant performance was verified through objective screen-capture evidence, with perceived usability quantified using the industry-standard System Usability Scale (SUS). The results demonstrated a profound shift in user experience: the Adaptive generative version achieved a System Usability Scale (SUS) score of 84.38 ('Excellent'), significantly outperforming the Deterministic version’s score of 53.96 ('Poor'). With a statistically significant mean difference of 30.42 points (p < 0.0001) and a large effect size (d=1.04), these findings confirm that reducing 'navigation tax' through adaptive generative interfaces directly correlates with a substantial increase in perceived usability. We conclude that deterministic interfaces are no longer sufficient to manage the complexity of modern workflows. The future of software lies not in a fixed set of pre-shipped features, but in dynamic capability sets that grow, adapt, and restructure themselves in real-time to meet the specific intent of the user. This paradigm shift necessitates a fundamental transformation in product development, requiring designers to transcend traditional, linear workflows and evolve into 'System Builders'—architects of the design principles and rules that facilitate this new age of self-evolving software.
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We study contextual bandits in the stochastic i.i.d.\ setting, where a learner observes contexts drawn from an unknown distribution, selects actions from a finite set $\cA$, and aims to identify an approximately optimal policy from a given class based on bandit feedback.
Motivated by the important special case of bandit multiclass classification with zero-one rewards, we focus on the \emph{$s$-sparse} setting in which, for every context, the underlying reward vector has $L_1$-norm at most $s \ll |\cA|$. Our main result is the design of algorithms that, with probability at least~$1-\delta$, output an $\eps$-optimal policy compared to policy class $\Pi$ using
\begin{align*}
\wt{O} \brk*{\brk*{\frac{s}{\eps^2} + \frac{|\cA|}{\eps}} \log \frac{|\Pi|}{\delta}}
\end{align*}
samples.
We further extend this bound to general Natarajan classes and complement it with a matching lower bound (up to logarithmic factors), thereby closing a substantial gap left by prior work~\citep{erez2024real,erez2024fast,erez2025bandit}, which incurred an additional $\Theta(|\cA|^9)$ dependence.
We obtain these results via two complementary approaches. First, we analyze contextual bandits through the lens of contextual decision making with structured observations, designing an exploration-by-optimization algorithm whose sample complexity is governed by the \emph{decision-estimation coefficient} (DEC; \citealp{foster2021statistical,foster2022complexity}). We show that, with $s$-sparse rewards, the induced model class admits a sharp DEC bound that scales with $s$ and directly yields the optimal rate. Since this approach is largely information-theoretic and involves solving complex min-max optimization problems, we also develop a second, more specialized algorithmic method based on a low-variance exploration technique. This approach leads to concrete, tractable algorithms and naturally extends to contextual combinatorial semi-bandits, leading to improved sample complexity guarantees for bandit multiclass list classification.
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A Theoretical Framework for Modular Learning of Robust Generative Models
Proceedings of the 43rd International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 2026)
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Training large-scale generative models is resource-intensive and relies heavily on heuristic dataset weighting. We address two fundamental questions: Can we train Large Language Models (LLMs) modularly, combining small, domain-specific experts to match monolithic performance, and can we do so robustly for any data mixture, eliminating heuristic tuning? We present a theoretical framework for modular generative modeling where a set of pre-trained experts are combined via a gating mechanism. We define the space of normalized gating functions $\mathcal{G}_{1}$ and formulate the problem as a minimax game to find a single robust gate that minimizes divergence to the worst-case data mixture. We prove the existence of such a robust gate using Kakutani's fixed-point theorem and show that modularity acts as a strong regularizer, with generalization bounds scaling with the lightweight gate's complexity. Furthermore, we prove that this modular approach can theoretically outperform models retrained on aggregate data, with the gap characterized by the Jensen-Shannon Divergence. Finally, we introduce a scalable Stochastic Primal-Dual algorithm and a Structural Distillation method for efficient inference. Empirical results on synthetic and real-world datasets confirm that our modular architecture effectively mitigates gradient conflict and can robustly outperform monolithic baselines.
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Usability Hasn’t Peaked: Exploring How Expressive Design Overcomes the Usability Plateau
Alyssa Sheehan
Bianca Gallardo
Ying Wang
Proceedings of the 2026 CHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems (CHI ’26), April 13–17, 2026, Barcelona, Spain (2026)
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Critics have argued that mobile usability has largely been optimized, and that only incremental gains are possible. We set out to explore if the newest generation of design systems, which promote greater flexibility and a return to design basics, could produce substantially more usable designs while maintaining or increasing aesthetic judgments. Through a study with 48 diverse participants completing tasks in 10 different applications, we found that in designs created following Material 3 Expressive guidelines, users fixated on the correct screen element for a task 33% faster, completed tasks 20% faster, and rated experiences more positively compared to versions designed using the previous Material design system. These improvements in performance and aesthetic ratings challenge the premise of a usability plateau and show that mobile usability has not peaked. We illustrate specific opportunities to make mobile experiences more usable by returning to design fundamentals while highlighting risks of added flexibility.
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A Dynamic Numerical Model for Real-Time Estimation of Latent Cognitive States Using Oculomotor Metrics
Diako Mardanbegi
ICASSP 2026-2026 IEEE International Conference on Acoustics, Speech and Signal Processing (ICASSP), pp. 22087-22091
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Estimating internal cognitive states from oculomotor data is fundamentally challenging due to their context-dependency and the complex relationship between various metrics. This paper proposes a dynamic numerical framework to model a task-specific behavioral signature and monitor deviations from it in real-time. The model integrates key oculomotor and motion metrics into a differential equation, yielding a continuous score that serves as an estimate of a latent cognitive state. By using tunable, heuristic parameters, our approach offers a transparent and adaptable alternative to opaque machine learning models. The framework’s strength lies in its ability to pinpoint objective changes in behavior, providing a potential tool for interpreting events like the onset of fatigue, distraction, or cognitive load.
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SAC133 - SSAC Comments on Proposed Root KSK Algorithm Rollover
Wes Hardaker
Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN), ICANN Security and Stability Advisory Committee (SSAC) Reports and Advisories (2026), pp. 9
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The SSAC supports the transition from RSA with SHA-256 (Algorithm 8) to ECDSA P-256
with SHA-256 (Algorithm 13) as the cryptographic algorithm for the RootKSK. The root zone
has relied on RSA-based algorithms since DNSSEC signing began in 2010. The algorithm did
not change during the first KSK rollover in 2018 or during the second rollover currently
underway and scheduled to complete in October 2026. Establishing a clear and predictable
process for algorithm transitions is essential to the long-term security of the root zone, and the
SSAC observes that the proposal addresses the Recommendation 23 of the SSR2 Review
accordingly.
The SSAC notes that the proposal builds upon the Root Zone DNSSEC Algorithm Rollover
Study published by ICANN in May 2024, which assessed resolver and authoritative server
support for alternative algorithms, analyzed rollover methodologies, and evaluated operational
risks. The SSAC finds that the proposal implements the study’s recommendations. The SSAC also notes that this proposal is consistent with the SSAC’s prior work on DNSSEC key rollover,
including SAC063, SAC073, SAC102, and SAC108.
The SSAC encourages ICANN to proceed with this rollover. Specific comments on the
proposal’s methodology, timeline, and operational readiness follow
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Mull-Tokens: Modality-Agnostic Latent Thinking
Arijit Ray
Chengzhi Mao
Bryan A. Plummer
Kate Saenko
Ranjay Krishna
Leonidas Guibas
Vincent Chu
IEEE/CVF Conference on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition (Findings) (2026) (to appear)
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Reasoning goes beyond language; the real world requires reasoning about space, time, affordances, and much more that words alone cannot convey. Existing multimodal models exploring the potential of reasoning with images are brittle and do not scale. They rely on calling specialist tools, costly generation of images, or handcrafted reasoning data to switch between text and image thoughts. Instead, we offer a simpler alternative -- Mull-Tokens -- modality-agnostic latent tokens pre-trained to hold intermediate information in either image or text modalities to let the model think free-form towards the correct answer. We investigate best practices to train Mull-Tokens inspired by latent reasoning frameworks. We first train Mull-Tokens using supervision from interleaved text-image traces, and then fine-tune without any supervision by only using the final answers. Across four challenging spatial reasoning benchmarks involving tasks such as solving puzzles and taking different perspectives, we demonstrate that Mull-Tokens improve upon several baselines utilizing text-only reasoning or interleaved image-text reasoning, achieving a +3% average improvement and up to +16% on a puzzle solving reasoning-heavy split compared to our strongest baseline. Adding to conversations around challenges in grounding textual and visual reasoning, Mull-Tokens offers a simple solution to abstractly think in multiple modalities.
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SpatialStack: Layered Geometry-Language Fusion for 3D VLM Spatial Reasoning
Jian Zhang
Bangya Liu
Achuta Kadambi
Zhiwen Fan
IEEE/CVF Conference on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition (CVPR) (2026)
Preview abstract
Large vision-language models (VLMs) still struggle with reliable 3D spatial reasoning, a core capability for embodied and physical AI systems. This limitation arises from their inability to capture fine-grained 3D geometry and spatial relationships. While recent efforts have introduced multi-view geometry transformers into VLMs, they typically fuse only the deep-layer features from vision and geometry encoders, discarding rich hierarchical signals and creating a fundamental bottleneck for spatial understanding. To overcome this, we propose SpatialStack, a general hierarchical fusion framework that progressively aligns vision, geometry, and language representations across the model hierarchy. Moving beyond conventional late-stage vision-geometry fusion, SpatialStack stacks and synchronizes multi-level geometric features with the language backbone, enabling the model to capture both local geometric precision and global contextual semantics. Building upon this framework, we develop VLM-SpatialStack, a model that achieves state-of-the-art performance on multiple 3D spatial reasoning benchmarks. Extensive experiments and ablations demonstrate that our multi-level fusion strategy consistently enhances 3D understanding and generalizes robustly across diverse spatial reasoning tasks, establishing SpatialStack as an effective and extensible design paradigm for vision-language-geometry integration in next-generation multimodal physical AI systems.
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ToolGrad: Efficient Tool-use Dataset Generation with Textual "Gradients"
Kohei Uehara
Haoyu Zhang
Lin Gu
Zheng Xu
Tatsuya Harada
ACL 2026 (2026)
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Prior work synthesizes tool-use LLM datasets by first generating a user query, followed by complex tool-use annotations like depth-first search (DFS). This leads to inevitable annotation failures and low efficiency in data generation. We introduce ToolGrad, an agentic framework that inverts this paradigm. ToolGrad first constructs valid tool-use chains through an iterative process guided by textual "gradients", and then synthesizes corresponding user queries. This "answer-first" approach led to ToolGrad-500, a dataset generated with more complex tool use, lower cost, and almost 100% pass rate. Experiments show that ToolGrad models outperform those trained on expensive baseline datasets and proprietary LLMs.
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