KVCIS: Activation-Based Token Importance Prediction for Intelligent KV-Cache Compression

We introduce KVCIS (KV-Cache Importance Scoring), a novel approach to KV-cache compression that predicts token importance from intermediate-layer activations before attention is computed. Unlike existing methods (H2O, StreamingLLM, Scissorhands) that make compression decisions based on attention scores computed during generation, KVCIS enables proactive compression at cache insertion time—determining how to store each token before paying the computational cost of attention. We discover a two-level importance structure in decoder-only transformers: the beginning-of-sequence (BOS) token acts as an "attention sink" receiving ~76% of attention, while the remaining ~24% is distributed across content tokens with 10-11× importance spread. A simple linear probe achieves R² = 0.998 overall and R² = 0.68–0.79 for discriminating among content tokens. Extensive validation across 3 model families (Llama, Mistral, Gemma), 8 layer depths, context lengths from 256 to 2048 tokens, and multiple downstream tasks demonstrates: 50% memory reduction with zero degradation on NarrativeQA (F1 = 0.064 matching baseline exactly), while uniform quantization degrades by 7.8% at the same compression ratio. KVCIS consistently achieves 5–8× better quality preservation than uniform quantization across all tested context lengths. The memory savings enable increased batch sizes and longer context support; the probe itself adds minimal overhead (~16KB direction vector, 0.06ms per token). This work extends activation-based probing from safety classification to inference optimization, demonstrating that intermediate-layer activations encode predictive signals about token importance for generation.