Keep Guessing? When Considering Inference Scaling, Mind the Baselines

Recent work suggested utilizing inference compute, showing that scaling of number of samples consistently improves the fractions of problems solved by any attempt, namely the coverage. In this work, we suggest that inference scaling gains should be compared with proper baselines, as some datasets become degenerate when allowing a large number of attempts. We focus on two domains - mathematical reasoning and factual knowledge, showing that for the MATH and Entity Questions datasets, informed answer enumeration obtains similar or even better results than repeated model sampling, with a much lower sample budget. While we believe that inference scaling is a promising approach for unlocking the potential of language models, we recommend carefully selecting models and datasets when applying this method. Otherwise, the results of inference scaling should be interpreted with caution.