Gemini & Physical World: Large Language Models Can Estimate the Intensity of Earthquake Shaking from Multi-Modal Social Media Posts

This paper presents a novel approach for estimating the ground shaking intensity using real-time social media data and CCTV footage. Employing the Gemini 1.5 Pro’s (Reid et al. 2024) model, a multi-modal language model, we demonstrate the ability to extract relevant information from unstructured data utilizing generative AI and natural language processing. The model’s output, in the form of Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) values, align well with independent observational data. Furthermore, our results suggest that beyond its advanced visual and auditory understanding abilities, Gemini appears to utilize additional sources of knowledge, including a simplified understanding of the general relationship between earthquake magnitude, distance, and MMI intensity, which it presumably acquired during its training, in its reasoning and decision-making processes. These findings raise intriguing questions about the extent of Gemini's general understanding of the physical world and its phenomena. Gemini’s ability to generate results consistent with established scientific knowledge highlights the potential of LLMs like Gemini in augmenting our understanding of complex physical phenomena such as earthquakes. More specifically, the results of this study highlight the potential of LLMs like Gemini to revolutionize citizen seismology by enabling rapid, effective, and flexible analysis of crowdsourced data from eyewitness accounts for assessing earthquake impact and providing crisis situational awareness. This approach holds a great promise for improving early warning systems, disaster response, and overall resilience in earthquake-prone regions. This study provides a significant step toward harnessing the power of social media and AI for earthquake disaster mitigation.