Sercan O. Arik
Sercan Arik is a Research Scientist at Google Cloud AI. Motivated by the mission of democratizing AI and bringing it to the most impactful use cases (from Healthcare, Finance, Retail, Media, Education, Communications and many other industries), he works on making AI high-performance for the most-demanded data types, interpretable, fair, data-efficient, robust and reliable.
Before joining Google, he was a Research Scientist at Baidu Silicon Valley AI Lab. At Baidu, he focused on deep learning research, particularly for applications in human-technology interfaces. He co-developed state-of-the-art speech synthesis, keyword spotting, voice cloning, and neural architecture search systems. Prior to Baidu, he completed a PhD degree in Electrical Engineering at Stanford University in 2016. He has co-authored more than 50 journal and conference publications.
Authored Publications
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ASPEST: Bridging the Gap Between Active Learning and Selective Prediction
Somesh Jha
Transactions on Machine Learning Research (TMLR) (2024)
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Selective prediction aims to learn a reliable model that abstains from making predictions when uncertain. These predictions can then be deferred to humans for further evaluation. As an everlasting challenge for machine learning, in many real-world scenarios, the distribution of test data is different from the training data. This results in more inaccurate predictions, and often increased dependence on humans, which can be difficult and expensive. Active learning aims to lower the overall labeling effort, and hence human dependence, by querying the most informative examples. Selective prediction and active learning have been approached from different angles, with the connection between them missing. In this work, we introduce a new learning paradigm, active selective prediction, which aims to query more informative samples from the shifted target domain while increasing accuracy and coverage. For this new paradigm, we propose a simple yet effective approach, ASPEST, that utilizes ensembles of model snapshots with self-training with their aggregated outputs as pseudo labels. Extensive experiments on numerous image, text and structured datasets, which suffer from domain shifts, demonstrate that ASPEST can significantly outperform prior work on selective prediction and active learning (e.g. on the MNIST→SVHN benchmark with the labeling budget of 100, ASPEST improves the AUACC metric from 79.36% to 88.84%) and achieves more optimal utilization of humans in the loop.
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Teach Better or Show Smarter? On Instructions and Exemplars in Automatic Prompt Optimization
Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS) (2024)
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Large language models have demonstrated remarkable capabilities, but their performance is heavily reliant on effective prompt engineering. Automatic prompt optimization (APO) methods are designed to automate this and can be broadly categorized into those targeting instructions (instruction optimization, IO) vs. those targeting exemplars (exemplar selection, ES). Despite their shared objective, these have evolved rather independently, with IO recently receiving more research attention. This paper seeks to bridge this gap by comprehensively comparing the performance of representative IO and ES techniques, both isolation and combination, on a diverse set of challenging tasks. Our findings reveal that intelligently reusing model-generated input-output pairs obtained from evaluating prompts on the validation set as exemplars consistently improves performance over IO methods but is currently under-investigated. We also find that despite the recent focus on IO, how we select exemplars can outweigh how we optimize instructions, with ES strategies as simple as random search outperforming state-of-the-art IO methods with seed instructions without any optimization. Moreover, we observe synergy between ES and IO, with optimal combinations surpassing individual contributions. We conclude that studying exemplar selection as a standalone method and its optimal combination with instruction optimization remains a crucial aspect of APO and deserves greater consideration in future research, even in the era of highly capable instruction-following models.
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Accurate estimation of output quantiles is crucial in many use cases, where it is desired to model the range of possibility. Modeling target distribution at arbitrary quantile levels and at arbitrary input attribute levels are important to offer a comprehensive picture of the data, and requires the quantile function to be expressive enough. The quantile function describing the target distribution using quantile levels is critical for quantile regression. Althought various parametric forms for the distributions (that the quantile function specifies) can be adopted, an everlasting problem is selecting the most appropriate one that can properly approximate the data distributions. In this paper, we propose a non-parametric and data-driven approach, Neural Spline Search (NSS), to represent the observed data distribution without parametric assumptions. NSS is flexible and expressive for modeling data distributions by transforming the inputs with a series of monotonic spline regressions guided by symbolic operators. We demonstrate that NSS outperforms previous methods on synthetic, real-world regression and time-series forecasting tasks.
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Better Zero-Shot Reasoning with Self-Adaptive Prompting
Findings of the Association for Computational Linguistics: ACL 2023 (2023)
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Modern large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive capabilities at sophisticated tasks, often through step-by-step reasoning similar to humans. This is made possible by their strong few-shot and zero shot abilities: they either learn from a handful of handcrafted, completed responses (“in context examples”), or are prompted to reason spontaneously through specially designed triggers. Nonetheless, few-shot performance is sensitive to the choice of the examples, for which artisanal hand-crafted selection would require extensive effort, and in some cases, it might not even be possible to obtain relevant examples a-priori without expertise about the downstream tasks. On the other hand, most general and handcrafting-free, zero-shot performance is limited by the lack of guidance to the LLM. To address this, we propose Consistency-based Self-adaptive Prompting (COSP), a novel prompt design method for LLMs. Requiring neither handcrafted responses nor ground-truth labels, COSP selects & builds the set of examples from the LLM’s own zero-shot outputs via carefully designed criteria combining consistency, diversity and repetition. In zero-shot setting, with only LLM predictions, COSP significantly improves performance (up to 2× compared to zero-shot baselines and matching or exceeding few-shot baselines) in a range of reasoning tasks in 3 LLMs. Moreover, COSP can be generalized to few-shot setting and can take advantage of few labeled examples in an efficient way
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In this paper, we propose a novel deep sequence model based on the Koopman theory for time series forecasting with distribution shifts. Our model, Koopman Neural Forecaster (KNF), leverages DNNs to learn the linear Koopman space and the measurement functions, and imposes inductive biases for improved robustness against distributional shifts. KNF employs both a global operator to learn shared characteristics, and a local operator to capture changing dynamics. KNF also includes a judiciously-designed feedback loop to continuously update the learnt operators over time for rapidly varying behaviors. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that Koopman theory is applied to real-world time series without known governing laws. We demonstrate that KNF achieves the state-of-the-art performance on wide range of time series datasets that are particularly known to suffer from distribution shifts.
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We propose a canonical approach for feature selection, sparse learnable masks (SLM). SLM integrates learnable sparse masks into end-to-end training. For the fundamental non-differentiability challenge of selecting a desired number of features, we propose duo mechanisms for automatic mask scaling to achieve the desired feature sparsity, and gradually tempering this sparsity for effective learning.
In addition, SLM employs a novel objective that maximizes the mutual information (MI) between the selected features and the labels, in an efficient and scalable way. Empirically, SLM achieves state-of-the-art results on several benchmark datasets, often by a significant margin, especially on real-world challenging datasets.
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SQLPrompt: Improved In-context Learning for Few-shot Text-to-SQL
Findings of Conference on Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing (EMNLP) (2023)
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Text-to-SQL aims to automate the process of generating SQL queries on a database from natural language text. In this work, we propose "SQLPrompt", tailored to improve the few-shot prompting capabilities of Text-to-SQL for Large Language Models (LLMs). Our methods
include innovative prompt design, execution based consistency decoding strategy which selects the SQL with the most consistent execution outcome among other SQL proposals, and a method that aims to improve performance by diversifying the SQL proposals during consistency selection with different prompt designs ("MixPrompt") and foundation models ("MixLLMs"). We show that SQLPrompt outperforms previous approaches for in-context learning with few labeled data by a large margin, closing the gap with finetuning state-of the-art with thousands of labeled data.
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Adaptation with Self-Evaluation to Improve Selective Prediction in LLMs
Somesh Jha
Findings of the Association for Computational Linguistics: EMNLP (2023)
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Large language models (LLMs) have recently shown great advances in a variety of tasks, including natural language understanding and generation. However, their use in high-stakes
decision-making scenarios is still limited due to the potential for errors. Selective prediction
is a technique that can be used to improve the reliability of the LLMs by allowing them to abstain from making predictions when they are unsure of the answer. In this work, we propose a novel framework for adaptation with self-evaluation to improve the selective prediction performance of LLMs. Our framework is based on the idea of using parameter-efficient tuning to adapt the LLM to the specific task at hand while improving its ability to perform self-evaluation. We evaluate our method on a variety of question-answering (QA) datasets and show that it outperforms state-of-the-art selective prediction methods. For example, on the CoQA benchmark, our method improves the AUACC from 91.23% to 92.63% and improves the AUROC from 74.61% to 80.25%.
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Real-world time-series datasets are often multivariate with complex dynamics. To capture this complexity, high capacity architectures like recurrent- or attention-based sequential deep learning models have become popular. However, recent work demonstrates that simple univariate linear models can outperform such deep learning models on several commonly used academic benchmarks. Extending them, in this paper, we investigate the capabilities of linear models for time-series forecasting and present Time-Series Mixer (TSMixer), a novel architecture designed by stacking multi-layer perceptrons (MLPs). TSMixer is based on mixing operations along both the time and feature dimensions to extract information efficiently. On popular academic benchmarks, the simple-to-implement TSMixer is comparable to specialized state-of-the-art models that leverage the inductive biases of specific benchmarks. On the challenging and large scale M5 benchmark, a real-world retail dataset, TSMixer demonstrates superior performance compared to the state-of-the-art alternatives. Our results underline the importance of efficiently utilizing cross-variate and auxiliary information for improving the performance of time series forecasting. We present various analyses to shed light into the capabilities of TSMixer. The design paradigms utilized in TSMixer are expected to open new horizons for deep learning-based time series forecasting. The implementation
is available at: https://github.com/google-research/google-research/tree/master/
tsmixer .
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Universal Self-adaptive Prompting
Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing (EMNLP) (2023)
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A hallmark of modern large language models (LLMs) is their impressive general zero-shot and few-shot abilities, often elicited through in-context learning (ICL) via prompting. However, while highly coveted and being the most general, zero-shot performances in LLMs are still typically weaker due to the lack of guidance and the difficulty of applying existing automatic prompt design methods in general tasks when ground-truth labels are unavailable. In this study, we address this by presenting Universal Self-Adaptive Prompting (USP), an automatic prompt design approach specifically tailored for zero-shot learning (while compatible with few-shot). Requiring only a small amount of unlabeled data and an inference-only LLM, USP is highly versatile: to achieve universal prompting, USP categorizes a possible NLP task into one of the three possible task types and then uses a corresponding selector to select the most suitable queries and zero-shot model-generated responses as pseudo-demonstrations, thereby generalizing ICL to the zero-shot setup in a fully automated way. We evaluate USP with PaLM and PaLM 2 models and demonstrate performances that are considerably stronger than standard zero-shot baselines and often comparable to or even superior to few-shot baselines across more than 40 natural language understanding, natural language generation, and reasoning tasks.
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