Feasibility test of per-flight contrail avoidance in commercial aviation
Abstract
Contrails, formed by aircraft engines, are a major source of anthropogenic climate change. Contrail avoidance, a promising climate change mitigation strategy, has been shown to be feasible in simulations but not yet in practice. We conducted a feasibility randomized controlled trial of contrail avoidance in commercial aviation at the per-flight level. Predictions for regions prone to contrail formation came from a physics-based simulation model and a machine learning model. Participating pilots made flight-altitude adjustments based on contrail formation predictions for flights assigned to the treatment arm. We manually verified results using satellite-based imagery and found a statistically significant reduction in contrails in the treatment group (p = 0.0316), with 63.6% fewer contrails observed than in the control group. This study demonstrates that per-flight contrail avoidance is feasible in commercial aviation and suggests it could lead to a significant reduction in the climate impact of aviation.
