Stephan Rasp
Building the next generation of weather models
Authored Publications
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Neural general circulation models for weather and climate
Dmitrii Kochkov
Janni Yuval
Ian Langmore
Jamie Smith
Griffin Mooers
Milan Kloewer
James Lottes
Peter Dueben
Samuel Hatfield
Peter Battaglia
Alvaro Sanchez
Matthew Willson
Stephan Hoyer
Nature, 632 (2024), pp. 1060-1066
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General circulation models (GCMs) are the foundation of weather and climate prediction. GCMs are physics-based simulators that combine a numerical solver for large-scale dynamics with tuned representations for small-scale processes such as cloud formation. Recently, machine-learning models trained on reanalysis data have achieved comparable or better skill than GCMs for deterministic weather forecasting. However, these models have not demonstrated improved ensemble forecasts, or shown sufficient stability for long-term weather and climate simulations. Here we present a GCM that combines a differentiable solver for atmospheric dynamics with machine-learning components and show that it can generate forecasts of deterministic weather, ensemble weather and climate on par with the best machine-learning and physics-based methods. NeuralGCM is competitive with machine-learning models for one- to ten-day forecasts, and with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ensemble prediction for one- to fifteen-day forecasts. With prescribed sea surface temperature, NeuralGCM can accurately track climate metrics for multiple decades, and climate forecasts with 140-kilometre resolution show emergent phenomena such as realistic frequency and trajectories of tropical cyclones. For both weather and climate, our approach offers orders of magnitude computational savings over conventional GCMs, although our model does not extrapolate to substantially different future climates. Our results show that end-to-end deep learning is compatible with tasks performed by conventional GCMs and can enhance the large-scale physical simulations that are essential for understanding and predicting the Earth system.
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WeatherBench 2: A benchmark for the next generation of data-driven global weather models
Stephan Hoyer
Alex Merose
Ian Langmore
Peter Battaglia
Tyler Russell
Alvaro Sanchez
Vivian Yang
Rob Carver
Matthew Chantry
Zied Ben Bouallegue
Peter Dueben
Carla Bromberg
Jared Sisk
Luke Barrington
Aaron Bell
Fei Sha
arXiv (2023) (to appear)
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WeatherBench 2 is an update to the global, medium-range (1-14 day) weather forecasting benchmark proposed by Rasp et al. (2020), designed with the aim to accelerate progress in data-driven weather modeling. WeatherBench 2 consists of an open-source evaluation framework, publicly available training, ground truth and baseline data as well as a continuously updated website with the latest metrics and state-of-the-art models: https://sites.research.google/weatherbench. This paper describes the design principles of the evaluation framework and presents results for current state-of-the-art physical and data-driven weather models. The metrics are based on established practices for evaluating weather forecasts at leading operational weather centers. We define a set of headline scores to provide an overview of model performance. In addition, we also discuss caveats in the current evaluation setup and challenges for the future of data-driven weather forecasting.
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