Analyzing energy technologies and policies using DOSCOE
Abstract
Low-carbon electricity technologies are often evaluated by their Levelized
Cost of Energy (LCOE). However, LCOE cannot model the impact of one
electricity source on the value of others. In previous work, System LCOE
was proposed to estimate the costs of integrating an intermittent source
into a grid consisting of multiple dispatchable electricity sources.
Using a new DOSCOE (Dispatch-optimized system cost of electricity) model,
we generalize System LCOE. DOSCOE can handle any mixture of dispatchable
and non-dispatchable sources. It can analyze systems which contain storage,
have legacy infrastructure, or have imposed policies. DOSCOE thus updates
System LCOE to be applicable to more realistic electricity grid models.
DOSCOE uses a linear program to find the capacity and generation mix which
yields minimum LCOE. Running this linear program multiple times yields
System LCOE curves.
DOSCOE shows that to cost-effectively remove the last 10-20% of fossil
fuels requires a moderate price on carbon and either low-cost nuclear power
or carbon capture and sequestration. Alternatively, a hypothetical zero-carbon
source needs to have a net present cost less than $2200/kW to displace existing
fossil-fuel plants.
Cost of Energy (LCOE). However, LCOE cannot model the impact of one
electricity source on the value of others. In previous work, System LCOE
was proposed to estimate the costs of integrating an intermittent source
into a grid consisting of multiple dispatchable electricity sources.
Using a new DOSCOE (Dispatch-optimized system cost of electricity) model,
we generalize System LCOE. DOSCOE can handle any mixture of dispatchable
and non-dispatchable sources. It can analyze systems which contain storage,
have legacy infrastructure, or have imposed policies. DOSCOE thus updates
System LCOE to be applicable to more realistic electricity grid models.
DOSCOE uses a linear program to find the capacity and generation mix which
yields minimum LCOE. Running this linear program multiple times yields
System LCOE curves.
DOSCOE shows that to cost-effectively remove the last 10-20% of fossil
fuels requires a moderate price on carbon and either low-cost nuclear power
or carbon capture and sequestration. Alternatively, a hypothetical zero-carbon
source needs to have a net present cost less than $2200/kW to displace existing
fossil-fuel plants.
Research Areas
