A community Palm Model
Abstract
Palm oil production has been identified as one of the major drivers of deforestation for tropical countries. To meet supply chain objectives, soft commodity producing companies and other stakeholders need timely information of land cover dynamics in their supply shed. However, such data are difficult to obtain from suppliers who may lack digital geographic representations of their supply sheds and production locations. There is also a proliferation of mapping products coming onto the market, which have a spectrum of methods, definitions and geographic extents that may present conflicting information and can quickly become outdated. Here we present a “community model,” a machine learning model trained on pooled data sourced from many different stakeholders, to develop a specific land cover probability map, in this case an global oil palm map. An advantage of this method is the inclusion of varied inputs, the ability to easily update the model as new training data becomes available and run the model on any year that input imagery is available. Inclusion of diverse data sources into one probability map can help establish a shared understanding across stakeholders on the presence and absence of a land cover or commodity (in this case oil palm). The model predictors are annual composites built from publicly available satellite imagery provided by Sentinel-1, Sentinel-2, and ALOS DSM. We provide map outputs as the probability of palm in a given pixel, to reflect the uncertainty of the underlying state (palm or not palm). The initial version of this model provides global accuracy estimated to be approximately 91% (at 0.5 probability threshold) from spatially partitioned test data. This model, and resulting oil palm probability map products are useful for accurately identifying the geographic footprint of palm cultivation. Used in conjunction with timely deforestation information, this palm model is useful for understanding the risk of deforestation from continued oil palm plantation expansion.
