The scaling of Transformers has driven breakthrough capabilities for language models.
At present, the largest large language models (LLMs) contain upwards of 100B parameters.
Vision Transformers (ViT) have introduced the same architecture to image and video modeling, but these have not yet been successfully scaled to nearly the same degree; the largest dense ViT contains 4B parameters. We present a recipe for highly efficient training of a 22B-parameter ViT and perform a wide variety of experiments on the resulting model. When evaluated on downstream tasks (often with a lightweight linear model on frozen features) ViT22B demonstrates increasing performance with scale. We further observe other interesting benefits of scale, including an improved tradeoff between bias and performance, an improved alignment to human visual perception in terms of shape/texture bias, and improved robustness. ViT22B demonstrates the potential for "LLM-like'' scaling in vision, and provides key steps towards getting there.View details
Weather forecasting is a long standing scientific challenge with direct social and economic impact. The task is suitable for deep neural networks due to vast amounts of continuously collected data and a rich spatial and temporal structure that presents long range dependencies. We introduce MetNet, a neural network that forecasts precipitation up to 8 hours into the future at the high spatial resolution of 1 km and at the temporal resolution of 2 minutes with a latency in the order of seconds. MetNet takes as input radar and satellite data and forecast lead time and produces a probabilistic precipitation map. The architecture uses axial self-attention to aggregate the global context from a large input patch corresponding to a million square kilometers. We evaluate the performance of MetNet at various precipitation thresholds and find that MetNet outperforms Numerical Weather Prediction at forecasts of up to 7 to 8 hours on the scale of the continental United States.View details
Bayesian inference promises to ground and improve the performance of deep neural networks. It promises to be robust to overfitting, to simplify the training procedure and the space of hyperparameters, and to provide a calibrated measure of uncertainty that can enhance decision making, agent exploration and prediction fairness.
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods enable Bayesian inference by generating samples from the posterior distribution over model parameters.
Despite the theoretical advantages of Bayesian inference and the similarity between MCMC and optimization methods, the performance of sampling methods has so far lagged behind optimization methods for large scale deep learning tasks.
We aim to fill this gap and introduce ATMC, an adaptive noise MCMC algorithm that estimates and is able to sample from the posterior of a neural network.
ATMC dynamically adjusts the amount of momentum and noise applied to each parameter update in order to compensate for the use of stochastic gradients.
We use a ResNet architecture without batch normalization to test ATMC on the Cifar10 benchmark and the large scale ImageNet benchmark and show that, despite the absence of batch normalization, ATMC outperforms a strong optimization baseline in terms of both classification accuracy and test log-likelihood. We show that ATMC is intrinsically robust to overfitting on the training data and that ATMC provides a better calibrated measure of uncertainty compared to the optimization baseline.View details
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