Google Research

AI Bookie: Betting on Bets

AI Magazine, vol. 42(3), Fall 2021 (2021)

Abstract

The AI bookies have spent a lot of time and energy collecting bets from AI researchers, and have met with universal approval of the idea of scientific betting, and nearly universal silence in the acquisition of bets. We have collected a few in this column over the past two years, in the first column we published the “will voice interfaces become the standard” bet, as well as a set of 10 predictions from Eric Horvitz that we proposed as bets awaiting challengers. No challengers have emerged. In this article we review the methods we've used to collect bets and conclude that people need ideas for bets to make. We propose five new bets and solicit participants in them.

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